Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 0.206343 0.247905 0.297743 0.362533 0.445454 0.549279 6.911266e-01
2025-06-01 0.151419 0.198575 0.261738 0.354565 0.491080 0.690461 1.015543e+00
2025-06-08 0.116596 0.164360 0.234583 0.349508 0.541537 0.867045 1.503982e+00
2025-06-15 0.093487 0.140472 0.215595 0.351554 0.608860 1.117123 2.332387e+00
2025-06-22 0.076320 0.121340 0.198966 0.353263 0.682817 1.444084 3.713685e+00
2025-06-29 0.060909 0.101370 0.175607 0.335377 0.714997 1.728801 5.497784e+00
2025-07-06 0.044291 0.075649 0.135271 0.269709 0.610348 1.606738 5.900041e+00
2025-07-13 0.037639 0.066822 0.125368 0.267194 0.665019 2.016818 9.574575e+00
2025-07-20 0.033276 0.061434 0.121118 0.277024 0.765577 2.737709 1.808774e+01
2025-07-27 0.030006 0.057538 0.119135 0.292748 0.903696 3.890636 3.916622e+01
2025-08-03 0.026932 0.053401 0.115547 0.303343 1.041304 5.422879 8.994437e+01
2025-08-10 0.023641 0.048113 0.107794 0.298535 1.120121 6.911837 1.927190e+02
2025-08-17 0.020327 0.042354 0.097972 0.285240 1.166087 8.557738 4.467543e+02
2025-08-24 0.018249 0.039117 0.094068 0.291411 1.330143 12.391119 1.931672e+03
2025-08-31 0.016471 0.036256 0.090479 0.297768 1.519732 18.397594 1.633188e+04
2025-09-07 0.015044 0.033999 0.088064 0.308406 1.773621 29.167570 1.448909e+06
2025-09-14 0.013763 0.031866 0.085458 0.317564 2.056200 47.308279 NaN
2025-09-21 0.012284 0.028923 0.079468 0.308007 2.175985 65.609870 NaN
2025-09-28 0.010168 0.023898 0.065494 0.252702 1.768432 51.721692 NaN
2025-10-05 0.009334 0.022330 0.062810 0.253714 1.957394 79.413338 NaN
2025-10-12 0.008774 0.021441 0.062225 0.265863 2.321489 150.008124 NaN
2025-10-19 0.008335 0.020823 0.062455 0.283429 2.843220 336.579250 NaN
2025-10-26 0.007863 0.020019 0.061796 0.295898 3.376598 779.816310 NaN